Simulation Argument

Assumption:
"What allows you to have conscious experiences is not the fact that your brain is made of biological matter, but rather that it implements a certain computational architecture."

Posit:
A civilization inevitably is interested in understanding the world. To do so, it is interested in creating a computer simulated world including simulated minds like ours.

Definition:
A civilization is technologically mature when it has sufficient technological ability to run such simulations.

"This does not purport to demonstrate that you are in a simulation. Instead, it shows that we should accept as true at least one of the following three propositions:

1) The chances that a species at our current level of development can avoid going extinct before becoming technologically mature is negligibly small.
2) Almost no technologically mature civilizations are interested in running computer simulations of minds like ours.
3) You are almost certainly in a simulation."

The simulation argument states that at least one of the above is true.

If #1 is true, a civilization will probably go extinct before reaching technological maturity.

If #2 is true no civilization that is technologically mature is interested in running computer simulations of minds like ours. There are no simulations.

However,
If #1 is false, a civilization will reach technological maturity before going extinct.

If we also say that #2 is false (as I have in my previous assumption which is based on our civilizations current such interest), this technologically mature civilization is indeed interested in running simulations of minds like ours.

If a technologically advanced civilization runs such a simulation, the number of minds that are simulated is astronomically huge. For example, civilization A runs a simulation. In this simulation civilization B becomes technologically mature and runs its own simulation etc.

If you accept that #1 and #2 are false it follows that there are many more simulated minds than organic ones. This would lead us accept that #3 must be true, you are more likely to be a simulated mind than not.


The philosophical question that arises from this theory (and one that will be addressed in my next blog post) is that if you accept #3, how does this effect your life?


-Excerpts taken from "Science Fiction and Philosophy: From time travel to superintelligence" edited by Susan Schneider